Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Schmaltz 47.1% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 54.8%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 66.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 68.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
46.5% (484)
+3.5%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
47.5% (99)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
46.7% (15)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Fantilli is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Fantilli shoots left. Schmaltz is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Home
53.0% (334)
45.3% (298)
Away
48.7% (372)
48.0% (300)
By Period
Fantilli
Schmaltz
P1
48.7%
40.4%
P2
53.9%
46.8%
P3
49.8%
53.4%
OT
28.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |