Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.1% vs Schmaltz 42.4% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 62.2%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 65.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
3
Fantilli
Schmaltz
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
3
Fantilli
Schmaltz
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Fantilli
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,930)
41.1% (3,218)
+3.1%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
47.3% (637)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (24)
47.2% (125)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Fantilli is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (705).
Fantilli shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,877).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Schmaltz
Home
47.5% (1,040)
42.7% (1,978)
Away
42.2% (1,077)
41.8% (2,002)
By Period
Fantilli
Schmaltz
P1
43.9%
41.1%
P2
45.9%
42.6%
P3
45.4%
43.0%
OT
23.1%
42.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
44.8%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 03:32 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |