Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Sturm 57.1% (-17.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 60.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 83.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Fantilli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Fantilli
Sturm
Last 5: Fantilli 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
0
Fantilli
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
62.1% (356)
-21.4%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
75.0% (4)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
38.7% (62)
-22.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sturm
Home
44.1% (488)
61.8% (191)
Away
38.6% (531)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Fantilli
Sturm
P1
42.0%
58.0%
P2
43.0%
57.9%
P3
39.3%
60.6%
Final 5 min
38.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |