Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 55.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 95.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 87.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Fantilli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Fantilli
Sturm
Last 7: Fantilli 5-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
5
0
Fantilli
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Fantilli
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
57.1% (2,719)
-12.4%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
61.3% (62)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
51.0% (498)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sturm
Home
47.3% (1,178)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Fantilli
Sturm
P1
44.0%
56.5%
P2
46.2%
54.9%
P3
45.9%
57.4%
OT
24.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
43.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |