Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 75.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 90.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 60.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Fantilli
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Fantilli
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
54.6% (271)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
54.4% (90)
+0.1%
On even strength, Sturm has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Sturm
Home
50.8% (472)
53.0% (168)
Away
49.2% (480)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Fantilli
Sturm
P1
47.8%
58.2%
P2
52.7%
53.2%
P3
50.0%
52.3%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |