Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Poehling 48.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 67.2%
Defensive zone
Poehling 91.3%
Neutral zone
Poehling 71.6%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Fantilli
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Fantilli
Poehling
Last 10: Fantilli 7-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
6
2
Fantilli
Poehling
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
3
4
Fantilli
Poehling
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
7
6
Fantilli
Poehling
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
49.4% (2,726)
-4.7%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
51.6% (93)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
41.6% (623)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Poehling has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Poehling
Home
47.3% (1,178)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Fantilli
Poehling
P1
44.0%
50.9%
P2
46.2%
47.0%
P3
45.9%
46.9%
OT
24.1%
37.9%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:22 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:52 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 09:54 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:23 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |