Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Nelson 50.6% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.3%
Defensive zone
Henrique 52.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
50.7% (879)
+5.4%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
58.6% (162)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
43.4% (198)
+7.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
53.5% (215)
52.3% (621)
Away
55.2% (306)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
57.7%
48.4%
P2
53.8%
53.5%
P3
51.6%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |