Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Nelson 45.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Defensive zone
Henrique 63.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
46.1% (735)
+9.3%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
34.5% (29)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
30.4% (23)
+17.1%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
56.4% (553)
48.7% (419)
Away
50.0% (530)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
51.7%
44.6%
P2
55.5%
47.3%
P3
52.5%
43.0%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |