Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Nelson 51.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 79.4%
Neutral zone
Henrique 60.6%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Nelson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
51.3% (1,002)
+6.2%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
58.7% (126)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
51.9% (81)
-6.4%
On power play, Henrique has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
56.4% (518)
52.5% (590)
Away
54.9% (492)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
56.0%
50.5%
P2
55.2%
54.4%
P3
56.2%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
47.4%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |