Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 54.6% vs Nelson 49.4% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 71.9%
Defensive zone
Henrique 67.6%
Neutral zone
Henrique 51.8%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Henrique
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (349)
49.9% (840)
+4.5%
Power Play
59.3% (135)
52.8% (89)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (13)
28.6% (35)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (298).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
55.3% (237)
49.8% (458)
Away
55.8% (260)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
53.5%
50.1%
P2
64.8%
45.4%
P3
47.3%
52.7%
OT
58.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.5%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |