Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Nelson 48.3% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 32-26 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 54.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 61.1%
Neutral zone
Henrique 57.8%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
26
(58 meetings)
32
26
Henrique
Nelson
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
9
7
Henrique
Nelson
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
12
8
Henrique
Nelson
20 total
Neutral Zone
Even
11
11
Henrique
Nelson
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
47.9% (9,695)
+2.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
54.5% (1,132)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
43.8% (783)
+2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
52.5% (6,418)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
50.6%
48.7%
P2
51.4%
48.5%
P3
50.2%
47.7%
OT
40.6%
45.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 03:03 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 01:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |