Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Henrique wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 45.0% vs Nelson 48.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.4%
30.6%
69.4%
Henrique
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Henrique
Nelson
Last 10: Henrique 8-2 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Nelson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
1
Henrique
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
3
Henrique
Nelson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (1,023)
49.6% (347)
-5.1%
Power Play
47.4% (173)
20.8% (24)
+26.6%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (185)
52.9% (17)
-9.7%
On power play, Henrique has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Henrique is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Henrique shoots left. Nelson is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Henrique
Nelson
Home
46.9% (680)
52.9% (210)
Away
42.5% (701)
42.1% (178)
By Period
Henrique
Nelson
P1
43.0%
43.9%
P2
46.2%
48.1%
P3
46.2%
53.1%
OT
25.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
44.7%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 17:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 2 | 10:38 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 19:12 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | OT | 04:01 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | OT | 01:55 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 2 | 11:09 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 14:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2015 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |