Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Tavares 57.7% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 59.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Henrique
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Henrique
Tavares
Last 6: Henrique 4-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Henrique
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
57.7% (998)
-0.2%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
60.5% (271)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
56.4% (39)
-10.9%
On power play, Henrique has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Henrique
Tavares
Home
56.4% (518)
59.7% (610)
Away
54.9% (492)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Henrique
Tavares
P1
56.0%
57.2%
P2
55.2%
58.5%
P3
56.2%
59.4%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |