Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.1%
Defensive zone
Henrique 69.4%
Neutral zone
Henrique 51.2%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Henrique
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Henrique
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
56.5% (566)
-1.1%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
61.3% (62)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
22.2% (9)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Henrique
Duchene
Home
56.4% (553)
56.6% (318)
Away
50.0% (530)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Henrique
Duchene
P1
51.7%
57.2%
P2
55.5%
55.1%
P3
52.5%
55.6%
OT
66.7%
81.3%
Final 5 min
55.1%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |