Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 29-22 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 55.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 70.2%
Neutral zone
Henrique 59.0%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Henrique
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
29
(51 meetings)
22
29
Henrique
Duchene
Last 10: Henrique 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
18
Henrique
Duchene
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
11
6
Henrique
Duchene
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
6
5
Henrique
Duchene
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
53.9% (10,396)
-3.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
56.9% (1,665)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
49.1% (468)
-2.9%
On even strength, Duchene has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Henrique
Duchene
Home
52.5% (6,418)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Henrique
Duchene
P1
50.6%
54.5%
P2
51.4%
54.5%
P3
50.2%
53.4%
OT
40.6%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 16:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 02:58 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |