Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Duchene 52.1% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.3%
Defensive zone
Henrique 72.9%
Neutral zone
Henrique 62.5%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Henrique
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Henrique
Duchene
Last 7: Henrique 4-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Henrique
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
53.0% (723)
+4.5%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
49.5% (101)
+23.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
43.8% (16)
+1.7%
On power play, Henrique has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Henrique
Duchene
Home
56.4% (518)
54.9% (408)
Away
54.9% (492)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Henrique
Duchene
P1
56.0%
52.5%
P2
55.2%
51.7%
P3
56.2%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:13 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |