Adam Henrique vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 77.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Henrique
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Henrique
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Henrique
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
50.0% (992)
+6.1%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
64.9% (148)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
34.4% (32)
+16.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Henrique is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Henrique shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Henrique
MacKinnon
Home
53.5% (215)
53.3% (591)
Away
55.2% (306)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Henrique
MacKinnon
P1
57.7%
49.9%
P2
53.8%
53.2%
P3
51.6%
50.8%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |