Adam Henrique vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.2%
Defensive zone
Henrique 66.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Henrique
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Henrique
MacKinnon
Last 10: Henrique 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
6
Henrique
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
5
1
Henrique
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
49.2% (1,266)
+8.3%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
54.9% (193)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
49.1% (55)
-3.6%
On power play, Henrique has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Henrique is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (285).
Henrique shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Henrique
MacKinnon
Home
56.4% (518)
50.9% (740)
Away
54.9% (492)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Henrique
MacKinnon
P1
56.0%
50.9%
P2
55.2%
51.8%
P3
56.2%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 05:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:18 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |