Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 62.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Henrique
Sturm
Last 8: Henrique 5-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
4
1
Henrique
Sturm
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Henrique
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
60.6% (708)
-5.2%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
61.1% (18)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
56.4% (101)
-8.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
56.4% (553)
61.6% (451)
Away
50.0% (530)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
51.7%
55.9%
P2
55.5%
58.9%
P3
52.5%
64.6%
OT
66.7%
70.6%
Final 5 min
55.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |