Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 55.1% vs Sturm 57.1% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 51.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 52.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Henrique
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Henrique
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (723)
62.1% (356)
-4.6%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
75.0% (4)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (231)
38.7% (62)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
56.4% (518)
61.8% (191)
Away
54.9% (492)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
56.0%
58.0%
P2
55.2%
57.9%
P3
56.2%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |