Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Sturm 56.1% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 72.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Henrique
Sturm
Last 10: Henrique 8-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
7
2
Henrique
Sturm
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
5
Henrique
Sturm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
57.1% (2,719)
-6.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
61.3% (62)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
51.0% (498)
-4.8%
On power play, Sturm has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
52.5% (6,418)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
50.6%
56.5%
P2
51.4%
54.9%
P3
50.2%
57.4%
OT
40.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:12 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:51 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |