Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 51.0% vs Sturm 55.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 74.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 53.2%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Henrique
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
Sturm
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
0
Henrique
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Henrique
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (270)
56.1% (716)
-4.2%
Power Play
58.5% (200)
67.7% (31)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (199)
51.1% (133)
-8.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Henrique is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Henrique shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Henrique
Sturm
Home
53.1% (339)
55.6% (412)
Away
49.1% (330)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Henrique
Sturm
P1
48.5%
59.6%
P2
48.6%
52.0%
P3
54.2%
55.5%
OT
70.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
51.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |