Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Henrique wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 83.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 83.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.1%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 83.6%
83.6%
16.4%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Henrique
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (376)
58.1% (823)
-2.0%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
56.2% (265)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (124)
62.9% (35)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (351).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
53.5% (215)
59.7% (561)
Away
55.2% (306)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
57.7%
51.6%
P2
53.8%
63.8%
P3
51.6%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |