Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 50 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Henrique leads 63-49 in 112 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 63.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
49
(112 meetings)
63
49
Henrique
Hertl
Last 10: Henrique 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
28
22
Henrique
Hertl
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
22
20
Henrique
Hertl
42 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Henrique
13
7
Henrique
Hertl
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
53.8% (8,268)
-3.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
59.3% (1,975)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
46.3% (806)
-0.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,505).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
52.5% (6,418)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
50.6%
53.6%
P2
51.4%
54.1%
P3
50.2%
55.3%
OT
40.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:58 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 16:49 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 12:11 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |