Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 54.8%). Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Henrique wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 54.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 54.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.2%
Neutral zone
Henrique 54.6%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Henrique
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Henrique
Hertl
Last 6: Henrique 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
2
Henrique
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (740)
54.7% (570)
-1.2%
Power Play
65.9% (132)
55.2% (143)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (57)
54.5% (77)
-3.6%
On power play, Henrique has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Henrique is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Henrique shoots left. Hertl is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Henrique
Hertl
Home
57.4% (467)
56.2% (379)
Away
52.7% (463)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Henrique
Hertl
P1
55.4%
53.4%
P2
56.7%
52.7%
P3
54.0%
57.6%
OT
22.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.2%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2020 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 27, 2020 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |