Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 51.2%). Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Hayton 51.1% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 32-17 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 51.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 80.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Lowry
Hayton
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
17
(49 meetings)
32
17
Lowry
Hayton
Last 10: Lowry 7-3 Hayton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
6
Lowry
Hayton
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
14
4
Lowry
Hayton
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
10
7
Lowry
Hayton
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hayton
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
50.8% (3,479)
+2.0%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
56.7% (594)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
45.2% (374)
-0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayton shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hayton
Home
53.5% (5,893)
52.9% (2,268)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
49.4% (2,179)
By Period
Lowry
Hayton
P1
51.5%
52.0%
P2
51.8%
51.4%
P3
51.4%
49.9%
OT
46.3%
58.1%
Final 5 min
52.9%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:56 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |