Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Hayton 53.8% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 87.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 66.6%
Neutral zone
Hayton 53.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Lowry
Hayton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Lowry
Hayton
Last 7: Lowry 6-1 Hayton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Hayton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
0
Lowry
Hayton
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hayton
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
52.6% (817)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
63.3% (139)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
53.1% (64)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Hayton has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayton shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Hayton is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (684).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hayton
Home
53.0% (583)
53.9% (516)
Away
50.6% (605)
54.4% (504)
By Period
Lowry
Hayton
P1
52.1%
55.1%
P2
51.8%
55.0%
P3
52.3%
51.7%
OT
25.0%
69.2%
Final 5 min
53.9%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:18 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 06:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |