Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.8%). Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Hayton 49.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 67.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 68.0%
Neutral zone
Hayton 51.4%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Lowry
Hayton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Lowry
Hayton
Last 9: Lowry 6-3 Hayton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Hayton
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Hayton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hayton
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
50.3% (318)
-1.0%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
50.7% (67)
+17.0%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
42.4% (33)
+0.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayton shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Hayton is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hayton
Home
50.2% (671)
47.4% (171)
Away
47.8% (709)
51.4% (247)
By Period
Lowry
Hayton
P1
48.4%
49.6%
P2
50.1%
50.0%
P3
47.8%
49.0%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:04 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 14:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |