Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Tkachuk 50.1% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 91.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.5%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Tkachuk
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
2
Lowry
Tkachuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Tkachuk
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
45.4% (183)
+10.4%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
53.2% (250)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
100.0% (2)
-57.7%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +57.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
53.4% (515)
51.1% (233)
Away
52.6% (549)
49.0% (202)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
54.2%
42.9%
P2
54.4%
52.2%
P3
50.8%
53.7%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |