Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Tkachuk 48.6% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 94.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 90.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 60.2%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Lowry
Tkachuk
Last 7: Lowry 3-4 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
3
Lowry
Tkachuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tkachuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
47.5% (421)
+5.2%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
50.3% (336)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
12.5% (8)
+27.5%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
52.4% (597)
49.9% (389)
Away
48.4% (583)
46.8% (376)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
48.5%
44.4%
P2
52.2%
51.8%
P3
50.5%
47.8%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 03:13 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |