Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.5% vs Tkachuk 50.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 30-24 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 83.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 89.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
24
(54 meetings)
30
24
Lowry
Tkachuk
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
1
18
Lowry
Tkachuk
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
25
3
Lowry
Tkachuk
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
3
Lowry
Tkachuk
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (9,130)
49.0% (1,560)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.1% (455)
51.4% (1,291)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (2,139)
45.0% (20)
-0.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,740).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,653).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
53.5% (5,893)
50.7% (1,428)
Away
49.6% (5,831)
49.5% (1,443)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
51.5%
49.4%
P2
51.8%
51.3%
P3
51.4%
49.3%
OT
46.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.6%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 02:33 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:19 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:38 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |