Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Tkachuk 56.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 84.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
Lowry
Tkachuk
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lowry
Tkachuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
0
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Tkachuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tkachuk
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
56.8% (139)
-1.4%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
60.6% (94)
+22.7%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
100.0% (1)
-59.6%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +59.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tkachuk shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Tkachuk is 62.6% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tkachuk
Home
54.5% (402)
50.4% (121)
Away
53.3% (368)
67.3% (113)
By Period
Lowry
Tkachuk
P1
52.4%
57.1%
P2
56.0%
60.0%
P3
54.2%
58.3%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |