Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaunce on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Gaunce 52.5% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaunce 50.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 74.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 51.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Lowry
Gaunce
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Gaunce
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Gaunce
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Gaunce
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaunce
0
3
Lowry
Gaunce
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Gaunce
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
54.1% (170)
-4.8%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
50.0% (2)
+17.7%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
50.0% (10)
-7.4%
On power play, Lowry has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaunce shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Gaunce is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (137).
Home / Away
Lowry
Gaunce
Home
50.2% (671)
51.4% (107)
Away
47.8% (709)
57.3% (75)
By Period
Lowry
Gaunce
P1
48.4%
63.4%
P2
50.1%
46.3%
P3
47.8%
55.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brendan Gaunce |