Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Ryan 51.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 76.8%
Neutral zone
Lowry 64.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Lowry
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Lowry
Ryan
Last 7: Lowry 1-6 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
3
Lowry
Ryan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
2
Lowry
Ryan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
1
Lowry
Ryan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (523)
54.3% (245)
-2.9%
Power Play
56.7% (30)
37.5% (8)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (162)
41.5% (41)
+4.8%
On power play, Lowry has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Lowry is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (221).
Lowry shoots left. Ryan is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Lowry
Ryan
Home
50.3% (354)
50.9% (167)
Away
50.7% (361)
53.5% (127)
By Period
Lowry
Ryan
P1
48.5%
44.0%
P2
52.2%
61.7%
P3
50.9%
50.5%
Final 5 min
53.0%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.5%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |