Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lowry wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 57.0% vs Larkin 54.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 79.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
Larkin
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
0
Lowry
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Lowry
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (843)
52.9% (1,228)
+5.7%
Power Play
65.0% (20)
63.1% (214)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (253)
55.2% (145)
-1.4%
On even strength, Lowry has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,085).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
61.0% (602)
55.8% (805)
Away
53.7% (514)
53.2% (782)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
57.3%
55.2%
P2
58.1%
53.3%
P3
57.4%
55.1%
OT
50.0%
51.7%
Final 5 min
61.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2019 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 1 | 14:00 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |