Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.3%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Larkin 52.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 75.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 54.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Lowry
Larkin
Last 9: Lowry 5-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Lowry
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
51.8% (903)
+4.0%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
56.0% (225)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
47.4% (76)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
53.4% (515)
55.6% (662)
Away
52.6% (549)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
54.2%
49.9%
P2
54.4%
52.7%
P3
50.8%
53.0%
OT
37.5%
68.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 07:37 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |