Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Larkin 54.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 82.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 65.3%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Lowry
Larkin
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
7
Lowry
Larkin
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
52.6% (1,117)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
60.7% (305)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
55.9% (177)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
53.0% (583)
54.7% (783)
Away
50.6% (605)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
52.1%
55.9%
P2
51.8%
56.1%
P3
52.3%
51.1%
OT
25.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 05:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |