Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Larkin 55.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.9%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Lowry
Larkin
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
7
Lowry
Larkin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
55.9% (943)
-6.6%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
57.4% (244)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
46.2% (106)
-3.6%
On power play, Lowry has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
50.2% (671)
56.0% (654)
Away
47.8% (709)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
48.4%
54.4%
P2
50.1%
55.9%
P3
47.8%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
64.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |