Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Larkin 54.1% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 77.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 65.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Lowry
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lowry
Larkin
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Lowry
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Lowry
Larkin
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
53.6% (886)
-0.9%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
59.3% (317)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
48.7% (152)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Lowry
Larkin
Home
52.4% (597)
56.6% (700)
Away
48.4% (583)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Lowry
Larkin
P1
48.5%
55.4%
P2
52.2%
54.7%
P3
50.5%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
49.4%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2023 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 16:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 13:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |