Adam Lowry vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.8% vs Pageau 58.9% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 66.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 62.3%
Neutral zone
Pageau 59.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Lowry
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Pageau
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Pageau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (660)
59.5% (676)
-3.7%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
67.6% (34)
+15.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
60.1% (213)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Lowry is 60.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Lowry shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pageau
Home
54.5% (402)
58.2% (364)
Away
54.1% (351)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Lowry
Pageau
P1
52.4%
54.4%
P2
56.3%
62.3%
P3
54.7%
62.0%
OT
44.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
58.5%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
54.0%▼
56.0%
54.3%
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |