Adam Lowry vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Pageau 58.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 64.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 60.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 59.2%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Lowry
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Pageau
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Pageau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
59.1% (687)
-3.7%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
69.4% (36)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
60.1% (213)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pageau
Home
54.5% (402)
57.8% (377)
Away
53.3% (368)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Lowry
Pageau
P1
52.4%
54.1%
P2
56.0%
62.1%
P3
54.2%
61.8%
OT
40.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:55 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |