Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Lowry wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.3% vs Tavares 54.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 67.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.4%
Neutral zone
Lowry 59.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Lowry
Tavares
Last 8: Lowry 2-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
6
Lowry
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (491)
54.8% (861)
+1.4%
Power Play
66.7% (18)
57.5% (226)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (140)
51.7% (29)
-8.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
57.8% (341)
58.1% (559)
Away
49.4% (308)
52.4% (557)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
53.2%
57.6%
P2
54.4%
55.5%
P3
53.0%
52.0%
OT
80.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
58.5%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 06:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 2 | 13:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 14:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 15:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 10:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 03:45 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |