Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Tavares 57.7% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 76.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Lowry
Tavares
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Lowry
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Lowry
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
57.7% (998)
-4.0%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
60.5% (271)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
56.4% (39)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
53.0% (583)
59.7% (610)
Away
50.6% (605)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
52.1%
57.2%
P2
51.8%
58.5%
P3
52.3%
59.4%
OT
25.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:19 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 09:01 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |