Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Tavares 58.7% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 70.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 91.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 79.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Lowry
Tavares
Last 10: Lowry 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
7
Lowry
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Lowry
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
59.2% (1,035)
-9.9%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
60.0% (310)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
42.9% (7)
-0.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
50.2% (671)
57.5% (668)
Away
47.8% (709)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
48.4%
58.0%
P2
50.1%
60.1%
P3
47.8%
61.0%
OT
66.7%
27.8%
Final 5 min
43.8%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 06:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |