Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Tavares 57.7% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 90.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 69.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Lowry
Tavares
Last 8: Lowry 2-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
5
Lowry
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
57.5% (914)
-4.8%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
60.5% (309)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
59.1% (22)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
52.4% (597)
61.0% (661)
Away
48.4% (583)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
48.5%
58.6%
P2
52.2%
57.8%
P3
50.5%
58.4%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.4%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |