Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs McTavish 51.5% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 68.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 77.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 54.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Lowry
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lowry
McTavish
Last 6: Lowry 3-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
McTavish
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Lowry
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
51.3% (725)
-2.0%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
55.8% (113)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
28.6% (7)
+14.0%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Lowry
McTavish
Home
50.2% (671)
52.0% (454)
Away
47.8% (709)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Lowry
McTavish
P1
48.4%
51.3%
P2
50.1%
50.4%
P3
47.8%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:17 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |