Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs McCarron 54.0% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 53.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 60.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.7%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Lowry
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lowry
McCarron
Last 7: Lowry 4-3 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
McCarron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Lowry
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
54.2% (756)
-0.5%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
55.6% (9)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
55.1% (158)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Lowry is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Lowry shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Lowry
McCarron
Home
53.0% (583)
54.6% (445)
Away
50.6% (605)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Lowry
McCarron
P1
52.1%
53.6%
P2
51.8%
55.6%
P3
52.3%
53.7%
OT
25.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |