Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Frost 55.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 80.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Lowry
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lowry
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
54.9% (701)
+0.5%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
60.8% (166)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
100.0% (5)
-59.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +59.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Home / Away
Lowry
Frost
Home
54.5% (402)
56.0% (443)
Away
53.3% (368)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Lowry
Frost
P1
52.4%
58.9%
P2
56.0%
55.3%
P3
54.2%
54.0%
OT
40.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |