Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.1% vs Frost 54.9% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 85.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 84.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 52.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Lowry
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lowry
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (459)
54.1% (521)
+1.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
59.6% (141)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (70)
100.0% (5)
-58.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +58.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lowry is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Lowry shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Lowry
Frost
Home
53.4% (268)
57.2% (339)
Away
54.0% (265)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Lowry
Frost
P1
52.1%
58.2%
P2
55.8%
55.6%
P3
53.4%
52.9%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
68.0%▲
55.5%
53.7%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |