Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.5%). Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Frost 49.5% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 87.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Lowry
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Lowry
Frost
Last 7: Lowry 5-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
1
Lowry
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
48.6% (704)
+0.7%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
55.7% (115)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
25.0% (4)
+17.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Lowry
Frost
Home
50.2% (671)
49.9% (399)
Away
47.8% (709)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Lowry
Frost
P1
48.4%
51.2%
P2
50.1%
53.9%
P3
47.8%
42.7%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:55 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |