Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Foligno 49.8% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 61.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 53.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 50.3%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Lowry
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Foligno
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Lowry
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Lowry
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
49.0% (261)
+6.4%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.1% (42)
+26.2%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
47.1% (51)
-6.7%
On power play, Lowry has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Lowry shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Lowry
Foligno
Home
54.5% (402)
48.9% (178)
Away
53.3% (368)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Lowry
Foligno
P1
52.4%
40.4%
P2
56.0%
55.8%
P3
54.2%
51.2%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 18:48 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |